Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 17.450584 19.903467 22.542354 25.588175 29.002356 32.706925 37.026399
2025-02-09 13.754293 17.068136 20.905341 25.659763 31.374079 38.001567 46.249820
2025-02-16 11.582715 15.182935 19.554264 25.220999 32.337645 40.941109 52.087505
2025-02-23 10.159876 13.982933 18.823731 25.352902 33.871801 44.545381 58.857405
2025-03-02 9.129456 13.108995 18.334354 25.626545 35.455956 48.150110 65.671067
2025-03-09 8.211408 12.263304 17.765020 25.686501 36.685496 51.284600 71.966197
2025-03-16 7.344277 11.382406 17.040783 25.428893 37.400640 53.697522 77.342400
2025-03-23 6.751962 10.827448 16.705357 25.653601 38.747175 56.981865 84.011574
2025-03-30 6.395882 10.581451 16.778997 26.443983 40.907996 61.467439 92.533015
2025-04-06 5.820325 9.940090 16.205204 26.216265 41.540635 63.773276 98.014982
2025-04-13 5.068609 8.947643 15.012394 24.949991 40.519366 63.585262 99.808671
2025-04-20 4.811308 8.733452 15.009810 25.512291 42.287400 67.573870 107.927191
2025-04-27 4.576600 8.544702 15.045039 26.153749 44.242590 71.983439 116.964086
2025-05-04 4.206221 8.089806 14.610119 26.001058 44.925669 74.471882 123.175087
2025-05-11 3.837279 7.600742 14.074886 25.632917 45.216625 76.330103 128.444637
2025-05-18 3.585578 7.299993 13.835881 25.740624 46.281056 79.441939 135.806472
2025-05-25 3.385199 7.075401 13.710085 26.027095 47.646439 83.080298 144.143760
2025-06-01 3.167651 6.797722 13.466677 26.084797 48.613468 86.094417 151.570867
2025-06-08 2.924694 6.447667 13.063547 25.824623 49.004075 88.152819 157.483334
2025-06-15 2.767699 6.254618 12.935990 26.052132 50.252765 91.688568 165.982114
2025-06-22 2.693932 6.225114 13.114625 26.853747 52.560222 97.111881 177.872129
2025-06-29 2.501855 5.930523 12.759260 26.622788 52.975508 99.277764 184.254110
2025-07-06 2.209573 5.393422 11.886004 25.338705 51.374431 97.836127 184.303269